AI / THE BEAR CASE
Bearish research on AI economics. Evidence before conviction.
An expensive buildout is a reason to investigate returns, not proof of a profitable short. Separate cash spending, accounting expense and the assumptions that would break the bearish thesis.
Start with the evidence →From the desk
AI / THE BEAR CASE · 2026-10-30
An expensive buildout is a reason to investigate returns, not proof of a profitable short. Separate cash spending, accounting expense and the assumptions that would break the bearish thesis.
Read the briefing →AI / THE BEAR CASE · 2026-10-30
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, Microsoft reported $58.000 billion in net cash from operations and $39.367 billion in additions to property and equipment. The $18.633 billion difference is a company-wide cash comparison; it does not identify AI spending or prove the investment will earn adequate returns.
Read the briefing →Original explanations of primary material. Our review date is shown separately from the source’s announcement date.